Thermal coal prices are forecast to stabilise at around US$109/tonne in 2026 before rising slightly to $US113/tonne in 2027 as production costs rise.

Australia’s export volumes are expected to fall from 205 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024–25 to 202 Mt by 2026–27.

Export earnings are expected to fall from $32 billion in 2024–25 to $27 billion in 2026–27.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-december-2025)