Impacts to LNG supply have lifted demand for thermal coal. Thermal coal prices are forecast to remain elevated in the September quarter 2026 before falling gradually through to mid-2027.

Growth in renewables and a preference for domestically produced coal in nations such as China and India are expected to gradually reduce demand for coal imports over the outlook period. Prices are expected to stabilise in real terms as supply falls in line with demand.

Australian exports are forecast to fall gradually from 209 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025 to 197 Mt in 2031. Export earnings are forecast to fall from $30 billion in 2025–26 to $25 billion in 2027–28 and decline further to $23 billion (in real terms) in 2030–31.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2026)