Australian iron ore export volumes rose by 6% year-on-year in the March quarter 2026. After two decades of rapid growth, output is expected to level off within the next 2 years, as new mines and expansions largely just replace exhausted operations.

World steel production is expected to reach around 2 billion tonnes by 2031, with falling output in China offset by higher production in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

Iron ore prices are expected to soften over the outlook period, as global supply rises and steel demand softens. Lower prices will reduce Australia’s iron ore export earnings from $117 billion in 2025–26 to $108 billion in 2026–27 and $77 billion (in real terms, base 2025–26) by 2030–31.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2026)