Gas

  • A cessation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) output from Qatar due to military conflict has pushed LNG prices up sharply and raised price forecasts over the first half of the outlook period.

  • Australia’s LNG export earnings are forecast to mirror price movements, rising from $59 billion in 2025–26 to $65 billion in 2026–27 before declining to $41 billion (in real terms) by 2030–31. Long-term earnings forecasts have been revised down from the March 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly.

  • LNG spot prices are forecast to decline from US$17.10/MMBtu in 2026 to around US$8.50/MMBtu (in real terms) by 2031 as US supply grows and Qatari output recovers. Further damage to LNG and gas infrastructure in the Middle East remains the primary risk, with significant potential to push prices up from this baseline.

    (source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june -2026)

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ABH Resources Insights:

From 2027 onwards, the Australian government requires LNG exporters to funnell 15-25% of production to the domestic market via new, domestic reserves policy.