Aluminium price forecasts have been upgraded, driven by supply constraints in China and easing US-China trade tensions.

Australia’s alumina output for 2026–27 has been revised down by 6.3% from the September 2025 REQ, as Rio Tinto announced a 40% production cut at its Yarwun alumina refinery commencing in October 2026.

Australia’s bauxite exports are forecast to reach 45 Mt in 2025-26, as demand from China remains strong.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-december-2025)