Tight aluminium supply is forecast to keep the aluminium price high at US$3,425 a tonne in H2 2026. Further out, the price will be supported by higher world demand driven by the global energy transition. The aluminium price is projected to average US$2,900 a tonne in real terms in 2028-2031.

Disruptions to aluminium smelters in the Middle East (ME) have curbed the demand for alumina and caused the price of alumina to soften. After 2026, output cuts in China and Australia’s Yarwun refinery are set to tighten supply and support the alumina price. The Platts FOB alumina price is projected to be over US$360 a tonne in real terms over the outlook period.

Australia’s AAB export earnings are projected to be steady at $19 billion in real terms over the outlook period, as elevated aluminium prices and export values offset sluggish alumina prices and export values. Australia’s primary aluminium output is likely to steady at 1.7 Mt per annum over the outlook period.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2026)